# Recommendations for CAUV Calculation

## Recommendations

1. Non-Land Costs as an Olympic average of Total Costs less Rent and Management from OSU crop budgets
2. Calculate Rotations and Yields with a 7-year Olympic average to maintain consistency with other component calculations
3. Replace Farm Credit Service as the source for interest rates with a regional survey of agricultural interest rates from a Federal Reserve Bank
4. Align all data sources to cover the same years

See http://robertdinterman.com/CAUV/ for online version

## Historical CAUV Values

year avg_cauv indx_100 indx_99 indx_89 indx_79 indx_69 indx_59 indx_49
2005 $123$650 $492$293 $124$101 $106$100
2006 $177$880 $675$465 $241$125 $134$108
2007 $181$970 $747$521 $283$123 $100$100
2008 $249$1,200 $973$708 $431$188 $100$100
2009 $459$1,620 $1,368$1,059 $746$435 $200$176
2010 $505$1,900 $1,601$1,278 $845$436 $214$200
2011 $700$2,380 $2,017$1,641 $1,126$632 $328$300
2012 $719$2,490 $2,128$1,717 $1,147$610 $363$350
2013 $1,205$3,780 $3,310$2,743 $1,958$1,218 $516$350
2014 $1,668$5,030 $4,428$3,718 $2,728$1,778 $700$350
2015 $1,388$4,770 $4,104$3,354 $2,347$1,371 $518$350
2016 $1,310$4,750 $4,074$3,302 $2,255$1,235 $466$350
2017 $1,153$4,205 $3,602$2,909 $1,969$1,061 $430$350
2018 $1,015$3,810 $3,226$2,586 $1,723$896 $400$350
2019 $876$3,420 $2,863$2,270 $1,469$731 $378$350

# Non-Land Costs Currently

## Current Methodology

Data on crop production costs are used to estimate average non-land production costs. The data are taken from the Ohio Crop Production Budgets prepared by The Ohio State University College of Food, Agricultural and Environmental Sciences for 2013-2019, inclusive. Again, data are collected for the seven-year period and the highest and lowest costs for each category are eliminated from the array. Five-year average costs per unit of specific non-land production cost items are computed from the remaining data as shown in Exhibit D (pages 9-10).

## Current Methodology

• Each OSU crop budget provides a “low”, “medium”, and “high” scenario for cost items and ODT uses a combination of “low” and “medium” to calculate Non-Land Costs for each soil type
• Two important values calculated for each Tax Year
• Base Cost: based on the “low” productivity yields for each crop for the past 7 years
• Additional Costs: based on a linear interpolation between the “low” and “medium” productivity values from the past 7 years for each component

## Current Methodology

• Every soil type ($$s$$) has an underlying Yield in their CAUV calculation for a particular Tax Year ($$t$$)

${Nonland}_{s,t} = {Base}_{t} + \left( {Yield}_{s,t} - {low}_{t} \right) \times {Add}_{t}$

• A Yield value below the “low” productivity yield would have Additional Costs (multiplied by the difference) subtracted from Base Costs for its Non-Land Costs
• A Yield value above the “low” productivity would have Additional Costs (multiplied by the difference) added to Base Costs for its Non-Land Costs
• A Yield value equal to the “low” productivity in a budget would only have Base Costs for its Non-Land Costs

## Current Implementation

• OSU releases crop budget for every year
• Preliminary release usually in October before the year
• Released in October 2019 for 2020 crop year
• Finalized values typically in May for the year in question
• Expected to be finalized in May 2020 for 2020 crop year
• ODT records itemized costs for each crop then uses the previous 7 years of data on crop budgets to construct Non-Land Costs
• The 2020 Tax Year will use OSU crop budgets from 2014-2020
• There were 137 different items in the corn, soybeans, and wheat crop budgets from OSU used in most recent 2019 CAUV calculation

## Current Implementation

• Only major categories in OSU crop budgets not collected for calculation are Land Charge and Management Charge
• Land Charge is rent which a landowner would not explicitly pay
• Management Charge is not collected as this entails the oversight of owning a property
• ODT harmonizes each OSU crop budget to then calculate the Olympic average of each item:

## Current Implementation

• Potential issues:
• Need to manually record each of the items for Non-Land Costs (process cannot be automated)
• Terminology and classification of types of costs in crop budgets have changed over time
• “Fixed Miscellaneous” and “Variable Miscellaneous” categories created in 2015
• “Hired Custom Work” category created in 2018 which is partially a subset of “Mach. And Equip. Charge” category
• Variance increases when more items are averaged

# Non-Land Costs Proposed Change

## Proposed Change

1. Non-Land Costs as an Olympic average of Total Costs less Land Charge and Management Charge from OSU Budgets as opposed to each individual component having an Olympic average and then summed up
• Reasoning:
• Simpler method.
• Safeguards against changes in definitions of variables for the OSU Budgets
• More stable values for Non-Land Costs

## Hypothetical Previous Values for Corn

2012 $350.71$366.08 4.383% $0.90$1.04 16%
2013 $391.90$405.25 3.406% $1.04$1.11 7%
2014 $437.85$452.42 3.328% $1.18$1.26 7%
2015 $516.99$509.97 -1.358% $1.36$1.42 4%
2016 $524.47$523.07 -0.267% $1.38$1.41 2%
2017 $538.78$534.21 -0.848% $1.45$1.44 -1%
2018 $529.28$534.21 0.931% $1.44$1.44 0%
2019 $517.63$528.08 2.019% $1.43$1.43 0%

## Hypothetical Previous Values for Soybeans

2012 $227.51$231.09 1.574% $0.93$1.09 17.20%
2013 $248.69$252.13 1.383% $1.12$1.26 12.50%
2014 $275.21$279.22 1.457% $1.27$1.47 15.75%
2015 $325.42$316.27 -2.812% $1.24$1.40 12.90%
2016 $336.33$327.69 -2.569% $1.07$1.18 10.28%
2017 $347.10$339.15 -2.290% $1.05$1.06 0.95%
2018 $346.26$339.15 -2.053% $0.94$1.10 17.02%
2019 $338.54$334.32 -1.247% $0.90$0.95 5.56%

## Hypothetical Previous Values for Wheat

2012 $211.52$215.26 1.77% $1.41$1.05 -25.53%
2013 $230.62$235.79 2.24% $1.61$1.31 -18.63%
2014 $255.48$265.47 3.91% $1.80$1.46 -18.89%
2015 $296.98$300.96 1.34% $1.77$1.48 -16.38%
2016 $323.52$313.03 -3.24% $1.64$1.30 -20.73%
2017 $336.21$327.10 -2.71% $1.62$1.56 -3.70%
2018 $330.53$327.10 -1.04% $1.49$1.56 4.70%
2019 $319.08$314.42 -1.46% $1.41$1.42 0.71%

## Hypothetical Previous Values

• Ultimate effect on CAUV values is near zero
• Soybeans higher on average
• Wheat lower on average
• Easier to calculate, interpret, and understand
• Values are more stable

## Hypothetical Previous CAUV Values

Year Avg CAUV Alt Avg CAUV Pct Chg indx_100 indx_99 indx_89 indx_79 indx_69 indx_59 indx_49
2012 $719$659 -8.3% $2,350$1,991 $1,586$1,036 $532$355 $350 2013$1,205 $1,130 -6.2%$3,650 $3,180$2,619 $1,848$1,117 $476$350
2014 $1,668$1,569 -5.9% $4,860$4,253 $3,551$2,581 $1,646$644 $350 2015$1,388 $1,469 5.8%$4,870 $4,205$3,457 $2,459$1,488 $566$350
2016 $1,310$1,374 4.9% $4,840$4,161 $3,389$2,349 $1,330$499 $350 2017$1,153 $1,213 5.2%$4,300 $3,693$2,997 $2,059$1,148 $457$350
2018 $1,015$1,049 3.3% $3,850$3,270 $2,632$1,775 $948$415 $350 2019$876 $889 1.5%$3,425 $2,875$2,283 $1,485$750 $385$350

# Rotations and Yields Currently

## Rotations Method Currently

The cropping pattern for each map unit is assigned a rotation based on the most recent five year average of crop acres harvested in Ohio: 38% corn, 56% beans, and 6% wheat. This rotation is based on data from 2014-2018 and closely reflects current agricultural production in Ohio. The acres harvested in each year are shown in Exhibit B (page 7).

## Yields Method Currently

For each of the soil mapping units, data regarding typical yields of each of the major field crops (corn, soybeans and wheat) were last published in 1984. In order to reflect more accurate yields, those yields of record have been updated annually since 2006. The yields are updated by a factor based on ten years of statewide yield information published by USDA. For 2019, yield data from calendar years 2009-2018 were averaged and divided by the 1984 yield for each crop (Exhibit A, page 6). This factor is applied to the 1984 crop yield of record for each soil. The table below shows the average yields used to develop the factor for each of the crops.

## Rotations and Yields Methods Currently

• Only two components which do not use 7 years worth of data or an Olympic average
• Not counting equity yield rate because per recent legislation: Equity yield rate is 25-year average of the “total rate of return on farm equity” published by USDA
• Rotations are based on harvested acreage data from USDA of corn, soybeans, and wheat from previous 5 years and averaged
• Yields are based on harvested yield data from USDA of corn, soybeans, and wheat from previous 10 years and averaged

# Rotations and Yields Proposed Change

## Proposed Change

1. Calculate Rotations and Yields with a 7-year Olympic average
• Reasoning:
• Consistency to length of other components averaging
• Olympic average helps reduce variance

## Proposed Change Effect on Rotations

Year ODT Corn Alt Corn ODT Soybeans Alt Soybeans ODT Wheat Alt Wheat
2010 39.0% 36.7% 51.0% 52.7% 10.0% 10.6%
2011 38.6% 36.9% 50.9% 52.2% 10.5% 10.9%
2012 38.6% 37.2% 51.1% 52.6% 10.3% 10.2%
2013 38.7% 37.2% 51.2% 52.7% 10.1% 10.1%
2014 38.6% 37.8% 52.0% 52.5% 9.4% 9.7%
2015 40.0% 38.8% 52.6% 52.7% 7.4% 8.5%
2016 40.2% 39.2% 53.0% 53.3% 6.8% 7.5%
2017 40.0% 39.4% 54.0% 53.8% 6.0% 6.8%
2018 39.0% 39.3% 55.0% 54.5% 6.0% 6.2%
2019 38.0% 39.2% 56.0% 55.1% 6.0% 5.8%

## Proposed Change Effect on Rotations

• Slower adjustment for year-to-year fluctuations in crop rotations
• In early 2010s, skew slightly more towards Soybeans than Corn
• In the later 2010s, skew reverses towards Corn
• Smaller year-to-year variation with proposed method
• Note: hay was removed from formula in 2010

## Proposed Change Effect on Yields

Year ODT Corn Alt Corn Corn Diff ODT Soybeans Alt Soybeans Soybeans Diff ODT Wheat Alt Wheat Wheat Diff
2010 140.1 147.6 5.4% 41.2 42.7 3.6% 67.1 65.4 -2.5%
2011 144.9 153.2 5.7% 42.5 44.9 5.6% 67.3 67.2 -0.1%
2012 146.5 154.0 5.1% 43.1 46.8 8.6% 66.2 65.8 -0.6%
2013 148.5 153.0 3.0% 43.7 47.0 7.6% 65.3 65.6 0.5%
2014 151.9 150.6 -0.9% 45.0 47.0 4.4% 66.0 65.0 -1.5%
2015 155.2 157.8 1.7% 46.7 47.9 2.6% 67.1 67.4 0.4%
2016 156.2 162.2 3.8% 47.2 48.9 3.6% 66.7 67.4 1.0%
2017 156.2 159.8 2.3% 47.9 49.6 3.5% 67.9 68.0 0.1%
2018 158.9 163.0 2.6% 48.2 49.9 3.5% 69.2 70.6 2.0%
2019 164.1 167.8 2.3% 50.4 51.2 1.6% 69.9 72.2 3.3%

## Proposed Change Effect on Yields

• Because yields generally trend upward, reducing the number of years averaged will inherently increase the yields because smaller values are more likely to drop out
• Up to a 5% increase in Corn yields or unaffected
• Up to a 9% increase in Soybeans yields but more likely 3% increase
• Up to a 3% increase in Wheat yields but most likely unaffected
• CAUV effects are intertwined with the additional costs of the Non-Land Costs aspect

## Hypothetical CAUV Values for Rotations

Year Avg CAUV Alt Avg CAUV Pct Chg indx_100 indx_99 indx_89 indx_79 indx_69 indx_59 indx_49
2010 $505$509 0.8% $1,910$1,604 $1,282$852 $439$215 $200 2011$700 $704 0.6%$2,390 $2,014$1,647 $1,133$638 $330$300
2012 $719$725 0.8% $2,500$2,137 $1,726$1,157 $618$364 $350 2013$1,205 $1,208 0.2%$3,780 $3,310$2,746 $1,963$1,224 $517$350
2014 $1,668$1,667 -0.1% $5,030$4,420 $3,712$2,726 $1,778$698 $350 2015$1,388 $1,386 -0.1%$4,760 $4,083$3,343 $2,342$1,371 $519$350
2016 $1,310$1,310 0.0% $4,750$4,062 $3,298$2,254 $1,237$466 $350 2017$1,153 $1,151 -0.2%$4,200 $3,590$2,902 $1,965$1,060 $431$350
2018 $1,015$1,011 -0.4% $3,795$3,213 $2,578$1,717 $892$400 $350 2019$876 $871 -0.6%$3,398 $2,849$2,260 $1,458$723 $378$350

## Hypothetical CAUV Values for Yields

Year Avg CAUV Alt Avg CAUV Pct Chg indx_100 indx_99 indx_89 indx_79 indx_69 indx_59 indx_49
2010 $505$578 14.5% $2,060$1,755 $1,422$968 $530$233 $200 2011$700 $826 18.0%$2,640 $2,279$1,881 $1,331$799 $371$300
2012 $719$885 23.1% $2,900$2,486 $2,040$1,423 $830$404 $350 2013$1,205 $1,395 15.8%$4,200 $3,674$3,088 $2,262$1,462 $603$350
2014 $1,668$1,759 5.5% $5,250$4,608 $3,888$2,874 $1,895$737 $350 2015$1,388 $1,488 7.2%$4,960 $4,309$3,539 $2,502$1,502 $565$350
2016 $1,310$1,487 13.5% $5,160$4,428 $3,631$2,533 $1,469$539 $350 2017$1,153 $1,294 12.2%$4,545 $3,893$3,178 $2,195$1,247 $484$350
2018 $1,015$1,133 11.6% $4,078$3,480 $2,822$1,920 $1,051$437 $350 2019$876 $961 9.7%$3,614 $3,052$2,447 $1,618$836 $398$350

## Hypothetical CAUV Values for Rotations and Yields

Year Avg CAUV Alt Avg CAUV Pct Chg indx_100 indx_99 indx_89 indx_79 indx_69 indx_59 indx_49
2010 $505$577 14.3% $2,060$1,748 $1,417$965 $530$234 $200 2011$700 $820 17.1%$2,620 $2,255$1,864 $1,321$793 $369$300
2012 $719$882 22.7% $2,890$2,476 $2,032$1,418 $828$404 $350 2013$1,205 $1,391 15.4%$4,190 $3,660$3,079 $2,256$1,459 $602$350
2014 $1,668$1,750 4.9% $5,230$4,581 $3,868$2,859 $1,885$734 $350 2015$1,388 $1,475 6.3%$4,910 $4,254$3,502 $2,477$1,489 $562$350
2016 $1,310$1,479 12.9% $5,140$4,399 $3,611$2,519 $1,462$538 $350 2017$1,153 $1,288 11.7%$4,525 $3,868$3,160 $2,183$1,241 $483$350
2018 $1,015$1,128 11.1% $4,062$3,461 $2,808$1,910 $1,045$436 $350 2019$876 $953 8.8%$3,596 $3,032$2,430 $1,603$827 $397$350

# Capitalization Rate Currently

## Capitalization Rate Currently

Five-year averaging is used to derive the Farm Credit Service interest rate of 5.69% assuming an 80% loan for a 25-year term, payable annually (Exhibit E, page 14). The interest rate of 7.55% for the 20 percent equity portion is based on the 25-year average of the “total rate of return on farm equity” published by USDA (1993-2017, inclusive). (RC. 5715.01)